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The season for investors

4th September 2009 | back to article listings BACK    print this article PRINT

As the far-from-barbecue summer drifts to a somewhat soggy end and many 'staycationers' wish they had gone overseas after all, thoughts turn to the impending autumn and the long months ahead of darker evenings and excuses for delayed trains falling from the trees in the months ahead.

But while the weather will be getting colder in the near future, investors may feel increasingly warm if the prices of their freshly-bought properties continue to rise as the leaves drop.

When it comes to the property cycle, the normal seasons do not exactly apply. Britain enjoyed a long hot summer of price rises since the chills of the early 1990s, only for the big freeze to set in last year. The question now will be when the green shoots of recovery cease to just be snowdrops peeping out on frosty mornings but the full bloom of a revived market.

As it happens, the warming days of spring will feel like the heat of summer - barbecues included - according to company director at online advertising firm the Little House Company, Jane Marr.

She said: "There is now pent-up demand for people who want to move and we feel that spring 2010 will see buyers more inspired to make that move and [provide] a real kick-start to the UK housing market."

There is another reason why the housing market is unlike the seasons, in the greater degree of regional variation. True, winter weather may be far harsher in the Cairngorms than Cornwall, but for Ms Marr there is a notable geographical tilt between the south-east and the rest of the country.

She observed: "It is clear that the successive house price gains and the increase in the average UK house price is strongly influenced by housing markets in London and the south-east. Some major cities are not experiencing house price gains and the UK's second largest city, Birmingham, is a good example of this."

Many of the recent house price surveys have backed this analysis. For example, the Hometrack survey for August showed an overall 0.1 per cent house price rise across the country, but noted only London, the south-east and the East of England saw a regional increase.

Thus for those looking for the spring of the property market, it may be noted that matters remain somewhat icy on one side of the Severn-Wash line, while on the other the thaw is well under way. This may influence investment decisions in the near future, but come the real spring of 2010 the picture could look more positive in far more of the country.

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