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Good news - the number's up

28th August 2008 | back to article listings BACK    print this article PRINT

There were some interesting headlines in Britain this week when a new projection about population trends suggested that Britain is on course to become the most populous nation in the European Union (EU) by 2060. But it is not the only island that is on course to become rather crowded.

Eurostat, the statistical body of the EU, revealed that its projection is for Britain to see its population rise from 61 million now to 77 million in 2060, meaning the country will have to find a way to house 25 per cent more people. In contrast Germany, currently the most populated at 78 million, will be down to 71 million, falling to third behind the 72 million expected to be living in France by that time.

Of course, these are long-term projections and a whole range of factors may have an impact, such as immigration, lifestyle fashions, the cost of family-orientated goods and services and health. Moreover, it is a longer-term trend, so investors thinking of buying into the residential property market in Germany need not reconsider on these grounds.

What sneaked under some peoples' radar is that two other island nations are expected to see much higher growth then Britain, with Ireland rising by 53 per cent and Cyprus most of all by 66 per cent.

This may provide Cyprus with many challenges, with the Famagusta Gazette stating: "These shocking predictions, if they come true, can only force greater pressure on arable land, water and energy - leaving many here wondering if Cyprus is really prepared for such a boom."

Of course, there may be good solutions to be found - such as water pipelines from Turkey or desalination measures, but for investors in property the interest will be in the way development is handled. As with anywhere seeking to handle a high population density, the use of brownfield land could become a key issue, while the government may be sensitive to overdevelopment.

But however Cyprus does go about handling its population issues - and of course the projection may be an overestimate - the bottom line about a rising population will be that there will simply need to be more homes and the demand for places to live will be greater. So while investors will need to take note of legislative developments, planning policies and whether the rise in population really is as large as projected, the bottom line is that there should be more demand and new opportunities.

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