Assetz® News - And the winner of best House Price Forecaster 2007 is ...

And the winner of best House Price Forecaster 2007 is ...

16th February 2008 |

Assetz !

On official government (DCLG) figures for 2007 we came first in forecasting growth in the UK house price market.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/Blogs/Entry.aspx?VersionID=101079&re=2480&ea=23630

http://www.theratandmouse.co.uk/weblog/archives/2008/02/market_report_o.html

For 2008 we are again the highest forecast at 5% growth this year and for reasons that are well documented in this blog in previous posts ( http://investors.assetz.co.uk/blog/archives.php ).

Watch out for our next Blog entry imminently and you'll see why we're very positive on the very bouyant UK residential market. We carry out very detailed analysis whereas others, who aren't doing the detail, are still nervous and would have us believe a house price crash is realistic. Just read the house price crash forums and watch them trying to convince themselves the UK market is over supplied with little demand - it is quite amazing that such a view exists that is so clearly the opposite of the truth - the truth is that there is huge demand and undersupply here in the UK housing market and it is at such levels that the government is having to intervene trying to incentivise more building whilst developers are actually building less due to funding restrictions and planners give less permissions to build. The official shortfall in properties being built versus demand is still 80,000 units per year - and that's whilst we're already hundreds of thousands of properties short in the first place at the lowest end of analyst's figures.

All I can say is consider buying now whilst the opportunities exist and sentiment is negative enough (whether you are an investor or a first-time buyer) as you won't see these price opportunities around later in the year in all likelihood. There are modest numbers of great buys at auctions where you can buy at prices similar to a couple of years ago - unfortunately the volume is not very high and, contrary to press comment, we don't expect repossessions to grow significantly in the future either once the market firms up and interest rates continue to fall. Make hay whilst the sun shines and take advantage of some remarkably good prices around.

And if you're still confused, look at the other market commentator's track record of projections - it isn't just 2007 house price growth that we got correct but many other market statistics over the past few years - just read back through the blog. Without giving away the story in my next blog too much take particular note of our announcement in July 2005 - in the face of the whole market saying house prices were going down we said that they were in fact beginning to accelerate up again - and we were right. http://investors.assetz.co.uk/blog/?postid=7

Stuart Law