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Late year GDP boost for France


12th December 2006 | back to article listings BACK    print this article PRINT

New property investors in France will breathe a sigh of relief today as the country's economy rebounded in the fourth quarter after a worrying absence of growth in the third three months of 2006.

France's national statistics institute, INSEE, said today (December 12th) that the third quarter's stagnation should be offset by the 0.9 per cent growth in the final three months of the year, bringing annual growth up to 2.1 per cent, reports AFP.

As he assured potential French investors, Eric Dubois, an economist at INSEE, said that the previous stagnation was a surprise to everyone and should not happen again despite reports of a global slowdown as we move into 2007.

The decline in the earnings of French exports will be countered by strong domestic demand, bolstered by lower taxes and weakening energy prices over the next few months, Mr Dubois said.

He added that the short burst of accelerated growth was mainly down to a pickup in the manufacturing industry in the run-up to Christmas.

The latest reports from France hold sway with a report released last month by the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which stated: "The French economy is likely to recover and continue growing slightly faster than potential over the forecast period."

It continued: "Sustained by firmer activity, employment growth should gain strength, and the fall in unemployment should continue, albeit at a slower pace than in 2006."

The OECD report concluded that the country's GDP growth is expected to pick up to 2.2 per cent by the end of 2007 before accelerating to 2.3 per cent the following year.

Although this should stand the country's housing market in good stead for long-term investment, a report from the European Central Bank (ECB) urged a word of caution for potential holiday home buyers in the eurozone.

The ECB told AFX: "Valuation measures based on house price-to-rent ratios persistently point to some degree of overvaluation in a number of countries."

While Spain was highlighted as a country where house price inflation would see moderation as a result of government policy to curb its spiraling property market, France was also mentioned as one of the handful of eurozone countries likely to see moderation in the housing market in the coming months.

However, due to the positive long-term predictions for the country's macroeconomic outlook, this moderation could well simply be a result of a global downturn, one easily reversed by an international economic rejuvenation.


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